Al Qaeda's Recruitment Woes

A new report from analysts at Strategic Forecasters entitled "AQAP: Inspiring Jihadists During Times of Failure and Defeat" details the problem that Jihadists are having attracting new recruits. Here is their summary:

"The fourth edition of Inspire, the English-language jihadist magazine issued by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s propaganda wing, al-Malahem media, was released via the Internet over the weekend of Jan. 15-16. Though this edition concerns itself with themes such as the compulsory nature of jihad, as well as the freedom to engage in extralegal activities to finance jihad, it also contains the undeniable yet unintended themes of failure and defeat. The failures and defeats experienced by jihadists of late are causing desperation in the jihadist mindset, a desperation this edition of Inspire is unlikely to remedy."

According to analysts, the magazine is stressing the compulsory nature of jihad as a response to a drastic drop off in willing recruits to the Jihadi cause. They also see evidence in the magazine of financial problems for the Jihadists as well:

In addition, the charge to plunder the wealth of non-Muslims whether by force or by fraud is also an admission that AQAP, like the rest of the jihadist movement, is hurting for cash. Al-Awlaki notes that “jihad around the world is in dire need of financial support” and that this is because the enemies of jihad have realized there can be no jihad without money; those enemies are therefore “following the money trail and are trying to dry up all the sources of funding terrorism.”

Finally, there is a stress on the value of martyrdom for its own sake as opposed to actual victories:

"Abu Khowla authored an article in which he provides a fictional dialogue between a jihadist and a Muslim. During the course of the dialogue, the jihadist convinced the Muslim that martyrdom was better than victory. This dialogue also serves as an admission that the jihadists have been finding far more martyrdom than victory in recent years, and seeks to encourage jihadists to embrace martyrdom even when victory is nowhere in sight, from either a tactical or strategic perspective."

While we must remain ever vigilant, it is heartening to know that the Jihadists are not exactly winning the battle for the hearts and minds of their fellow Muslims.