For Want Of Pakistani Enlightenment, Afghanistan Will Be Lost

The concept of “causality” involves the inter-relationship of events. One event—i.e., the cause—can trigger a second—i.e., the effect—which can become the triggering event/cause for a third, etc. The proverbial rhyme “For Want of a Nail” underscores this theme: For want of a nail to shoe a horse’s hoof, the horse was unavailable for its knight to ride; thus the knight was unable to go to battle; thus the battle was lost; thus, ultimately, the kingdom fell. Nowhere is causality more complex than the equation for US success in Afghanistan.

This equation involves numerous variables—resolution of which lies outside Afghanistan’s borders and direct US control. Everything right could happen inside Afghanistan but, due to these outside variables, stability still would not prevail. These variables will play out in Pakistan.

Following the US defeat of the Taliban and al-Qaeda forces in Afghanistan in 2001, the militants moved across the border into the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), located in northwest Pakistan. FATA has remained a safe haven for the militants ever since. Success in Afghanistan clearly turns—as recognized in a recent US strategy review—on denying the enemy continuing access there.

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